Vila Nova 1-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
34%
2.83
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.44
Over 2.5
39%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
1.97
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.95
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.5pp
34%
Draw
31%
+2.3pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
66%
-4.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
34%
+4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.2pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.27/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.47
-3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
21.3 Crosses 15.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Criciuma
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.26 xG 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
308 Passes 288
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.06.2025 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
23.08.2023 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
13.05.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
05.10.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
25.06.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
02.10.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-1
AWAY Criciuma
1.24 xG 1.05
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
186 Passes 352
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Criciuma shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 34% / 29% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Vila Nova had 38% of the ball to Criciuma's 62%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.24 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Criciuma led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Vila Nova and 0.67 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

Vila Nova 1-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie B on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 37%, draw 34%, Criciuma 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vila Nova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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