Erbil 2-1 Al Karma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 3 Oct 2025

Erbil
2-1 HT 2-1
Al Karma
📅03/10/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Iraq - Premier League – 2025/2026

Erbil vs Al Karma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erbil v Al Karma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erbil EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Karma EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.46/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.75
+32% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / -38%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
259 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Erbil vs Al Karma Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erbil
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Karma
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
23.04.2025 Al Karma 1-0 HT 0-0 Erbil Erbil IRAK
POST-MATCH Erbil vs Al Karma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erbil squeezed past Al Karma 2-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Erbil found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Erbil vs Al Karma?

Erbil 2-1 Al Karma in the Iraq - Premier League on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erbil vs Al Karma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erbil win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Erbil 37%, draw 28%, Al Karma 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erbil) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erbil) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
IRAK More Iraq - Premier League
3 Oct 2025
18:00 Al Karkh vs Naft Analysis →
20:30 Al Talaba vs Duhok Analysis →