Aluminium Arak 1-0 Shams Azar Qazvin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
37%
2.7
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.41
Over 2.5
30%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
46%
1.95
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
14%
6.07
6+ Goals
6%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 1.95 — our 46% vs market 42.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
7%
X/X
24%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.1pp
37%
Draw
34%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-4.4pp
70%
Under 2.5
67%
+3.0pp
30%
Over 2.5
33%
-3.0pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.3pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminium Arak EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Shams Azar Qazvin EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.83/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.26
-14% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminium Arak
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Shams Azar Qazvin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
6 Corners 3
02.01.2025 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 3-0 HT 2-0 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin IRAN
08.03.2024 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin 2-1 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
30.08.2023 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 2-0 HT 0-0 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin IRAN
POST-MATCH Aluminium Arak vs Shams Azar Qazvin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aluminium Arak nicked a narrow win over Shams Azar Qazvin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 37% / 24%) promised a tight game; Aluminium Arak found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aluminium Arak had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aluminium Arak and 0.67 for Shams Azar Qazvin.

What was the final score of Aluminium Arak vs Shams Azar Qazvin?

Aluminium Arak 1-0 Shams Azar Qazvin in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminium Arak vs Shams Azar Qazvin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aluminium Arak win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aluminium Arak 38%, draw 37%, Shams Azar Qazvin 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aluminium Arak), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aluminium Arak) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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