Radnicki Nis 4-2 Radnik Surdulica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.64
Over
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
46%
4-5
15%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
25%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.2pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Radnicki Nis EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Radnik Surdulica EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.25/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.31
+12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.3 Crosses 18.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Radnicki Nis
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Radnik Surdulica
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.08 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
315 Passes 235
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Radnicki Nis Radnicki Nis 1-0 HT 0-0 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
03.03.2024 Radnicki Nis Radnicki Nis 0-3 HT 0-0 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
22.09.2023 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 0-0 HT 0-0 Radnicki Nis Radnicki Nis SIRP
27.04.2023 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 1-0 HT 0-0 Radnicki Nis Radnicki Nis SIRP
18.02.2023 Radnicki Nis Radnicki Nis 0-0 HT 0-0 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica SIRP
21.08.2022 Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica 1-3 HT 0-1 Radnicki Nis Radnicki Nis SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Radnicki Nis
4-2
AWAY Radnik Surdulica
2.84 xG 2.90
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
271 Passes 205
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Radnicki Nis vs Radnik Surdulica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Radnicki Nis beat Radnik Surdulica 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Radnicki Nis as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Radnicki Nis had 53% of the ball to Radnik Surdulica's 47%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.84 to 2.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Radnicki Nis and 0.83 for Radnik Surdulica.

What was the final score of Radnicki Nis vs Radnik Surdulica?

Radnicki Nis 4-2 Radnik Surdulica in the Serbia - Super League on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Radnicki Nis vs Radnik Surdulica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Radnicki Nis win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Radnicki Nis 47%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Radnicki Nis) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Radnicki Nis) ✗ Under 2.5
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