Ceuta 4-2 Real Murcia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
5.87
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.4pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-5.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+5.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Murcia EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +32%
1.45/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.77
+16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +47%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
267 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Real Murcia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
28.04.2024 Real Murcia Real Murcia 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
05.11.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Murcia Real Murcia İS3
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Real Murcia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta beat Real Murcia 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ceuta as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ceuta and 0.50 for Real Murcia.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Real Murcia?

Ceuta 4-2 Real Murcia in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Real Murcia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 42%, draw 29%, Real Murcia 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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