Real Murcia 1-0 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.75
6+ Goals
7%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 37% vs market 33.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.7pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Murcia EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.05/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.25
-16% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Murcia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ceuta
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
11 Corners 4
05.11.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Murcia Real Murcia İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Murcia
1-0
AWAY Ceuta
48% Ball Possession 52%
4 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Real Murcia vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Murcia squeezed past Ceuta 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day Real Murcia made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Real Murcia had 48% of the ball to Ceuta's 52%, shots finished 4-10.

What was the final score of Real Murcia vs Ceuta?

Real Murcia 1-0 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Murcia vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Real Murcia 36%, draw 30%, Ceuta 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Murcia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Murcia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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