Mönchengladbach 4-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 Nov 2024

Mönchengladbach
4-1 HT 3-0
Werder Bremen
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
41%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.72
6+ Goals
16%
6.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.99
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
10%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.39
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.65
X/X
11%
5.59
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
15%
4.01
2/X
5%
12.35
Value flag · X/2 at 6.65 — our 17% vs market 11.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-8.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
41%
Away Win
32%
+8.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.8pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mönchengladbach v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.64/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.37
+6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
18.4 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.92 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
458 Passes 392
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-2 HT 1-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
15.12.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
17.03.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-2 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
01.10.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 5-1 HT 4-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
22.05.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-4 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
19.01.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Mönchengladbach 4-1 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
4-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.48 xG 1.41
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
396 Passes 453
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mönchengladbach swept aside Werder Bremen 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Werder Bremen at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 47% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 53%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 2.48 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mönchengladbach and 2.17 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?

Mönchengladbach 4-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 34%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 41%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Werder Bremen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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