Werder Bremen 2-2 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
11%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.88
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
18%
5.11
X/2
9%
6.82
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.7
2/2
21%
4.31
2/X
6%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.47/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.80
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
18.5 Crosses 14.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.45 xG 1.68
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
361 Passes 468
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
17.03.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-2 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
01.10.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 5-1 HT 4-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
22.05.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-4 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
19.01.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
26.05.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
2-2
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.44 xG 1.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
550 Passes 419
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen and Mönchengladbach shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 56% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 44%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.44 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.67 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Mönchengladbach?

Werder Bremen 2-2 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 40%, draw 25%, Mönchengladbach 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Werder Bremen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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