Köln 0-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2024

Köln
0-0 HT 0-0
Freiburg
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Köln vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.33
X/2
16%
5.87
X/X
8%
5.06
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
15%
3.84
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.35/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.52
-34% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
26.7 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Köln vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Freiburg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
308 Passes 325
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
29.04.2023 Köln Köln 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.11.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
05.02.2022 Köln Köln 1-0 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.09.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL1
09.05.2021 Köln Köln 1-4 HT 0-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Köln 0-0 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
0-0
AWAY Freiburg
0.92 xG 0.82
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 1
365 Passes 283
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Köln vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Köln and Freiburg fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Köln had 56% of the ball to Freiburg's 44%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 0.92 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Köln and 1.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Köln vs Freiburg?

Köln 0-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Köln 39%, draw 23%, Freiburg 38%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
4 May 2024
16:30 Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt 98 Analysis →
16:30 Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg Analysis →
16:30 Werder Bremen vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →
16:30 Stuttgart vs Bayern Münih Analysis →