Stuttgart 3-1 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2024

Stuttgart
3-1 HT 1-1
Bayern Münih
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Stuttgart vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.41
No
49%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.72
2-3 Goals
35%
2.03
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
15%
6.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.3
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
10%
5.88
X/2
14%
6.1
X/X
11%
5.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
15%
3.46
2/X
6%
12.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
67%
-15.5pp
49%
BTTS No
33%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +21%
1.71/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.14
+11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.5 Crosses 17.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Stuttgart vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.03 xG 2.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
379 Passes 510
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
04.03.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
10.09.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
08.05.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 2-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
14.12.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-5 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
20.03.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 4-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Stuttgart 3-1 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-1
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.81 xG 1.70
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
587 Passes 365
92% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart got the better of Bayern Münih 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (41% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Stuttgart found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 60% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 40%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.81 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Stuttgart and 3.00 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Bayern Münih?

Stuttgart 3-1 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 41%, draw 24%, Bayern Münih 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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