Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.36
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
15%
4.0
X/2
9%
8.88
X/X
13%
4.16
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
12%
7.42
2/X
9%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.57/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.89
+5% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 79%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
22.5 Crosses 18.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.52 xG 1.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 Passes 385
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.07.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
18.11.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
29.07.2018 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
20.10.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
25.06.2017 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
06.11.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 3-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-2
AWAY Vitoria
1.28 xG 1.12
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
391 Passes 188
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 9
38 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 64% of the ball to Vitoria's 36%, shots finished 25-11, expected goals 1.28 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.17 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?

Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 44%, draw 28%, Vitoria 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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