Esbjerg 3-2 Hobro IK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 3 Nov 2024

Esbjerg
3-2 HT 1-0
Hobro IK
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

Esbjerg vs Hobro IK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.1
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
32%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.06
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
10%
12.55
X/1
20%
5.4
X/2
12%
6.42
X/X
9%
5.69
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
17%
3.88
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.5pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Esbjerg v Hobro IK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +22%
1.05/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.06
-3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +87%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
18.3 Crosses 21.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Esbjerg vs Hobro IK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Hobro IK
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.98 xG 1.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
316 Passes 373
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.07.2024 Hobro IK Hobro IK 3-6 HT 1-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
22.05.2022 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-2 HT 0-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
31.03.2022 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-2 HT 2-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
29.10.2021 Hobro IK Hobro IK 2-6 HT 0-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
10.09.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 0-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
19.03.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1

Esbjerg 3-2 Hobro IK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
3-2
AWAY Hobro IK
2.44 xG 2.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
399 Passes 374
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 36
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs Hobro IK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg squeezed past Hobro IK 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Esbjerg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Esbjerg had 51% of the ball to Hobro IK's 49%, shots finished 18-18, expected goals 2.44 to 2.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esbjerg had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Esbjerg and 1.50 for Hobro IK.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs Hobro IK?

Esbjerg 3-2 Hobro IK in the Denmark 1st Division on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs Hobro IK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 38%, draw 26%, Hobro IK 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esbjerg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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