Uniao De Leiria 1-0 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.54
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 34% vs market 32.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.7pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 32%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.64/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.35
+7% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.5 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leixoes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 0.45
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
330 Passes 304
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 0-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
18.11.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-0 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
05.03.2010 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
04.10.2009 Leixoes Leixoes 3-2 HT 1-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
27.04.2008 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-3 HT 1-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR
16.12.2007 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 2-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-0
AWAY Leixoes
1.31 xG 0.67
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
260 Passes 445
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria squeezed past Leixoes 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Uniao De Leiria found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 38% of the ball to Leixoes's 62%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.31 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.50 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Leixoes?

Uniao De Leiria 1-0 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 39%, draw 29%, Leixoes 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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