Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -7%
1.45/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.48
+4% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
376 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Progreso
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.04.2024 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.10.2021 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
04.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-3 HT 0-2 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
30.01.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-4 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
08.03.2020 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
2-1
AWAY Progreso
70% Ball Possession 30%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) nicked a narrow win over Progreso 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool FC (Montevideo) as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) had 70% of the ball to Progreso's 30%, shots finished 11-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) and 1.00 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso?

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool FC (Montevideo) win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 46%, draw 24%, Progreso 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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