Al Gharafa 1-2 Al Hilal Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 3 Nov 2025

📅03/11/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
6.35
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
68%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.74
Over 2.5
58%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.03
2-3 Goals
41%
2.07
4-5 Goals
27%
2.43
6+ Goals
12%
5.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
13.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
18.8
1/X
4%
21.8
X/1
5%
17.3
X/2
17%
4.03
X/X
10%
8.94
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
37%
1.52
2/X
5%
19.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.8 — our 13% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
13%
+0.8pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.3pp
67%
Away Win
70%
-3.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
33%
+8.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
67%
-8.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 75%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.96/3.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/1.20
+13% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -37%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
262 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 475 · 86%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.9
12.0 Crosses 22.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.07 xG 2.76
38% Ball Possession 62%
1 Total Shots 23
0 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 11
306 Passes 546
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
7 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
03.12.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
1-2
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
0.48 xG 0.95
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
305 Passes 547
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh edged past Al Gharafa 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Hilal Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Gharafa had 38% of the ball to Al Hilal Riyadh's 62%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.48 to 0.95.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Al Gharafa 1-2 Al Hilal Riyadh in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 03/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 13%, draw 19%, Al Hilal Riyadh 67%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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