Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.46
Over 2.5
61%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
8.57
2-3 Goals
38%
2.39
4-5 Goals
33%
2.39
6+ Goals
12%
4.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.55
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
19.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
3.95
X/2
7%
17.3
X/X
7%
9.67
2/1
7%
17.85
2/2
6%
10.9
2/X
5%
19.15
Value flag · X/1 at 3.95 — our 28% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-9.0pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.3pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
25%
+13.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
75%
-13.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.4pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.94/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.74
+1% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -26%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
19.3 Crosses 11.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
3-0
AWAY Al Gharafa
2.76 xG 0.07
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 1
10 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 0
546 Passes 306
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh ran out comfortable winners over Al Gharafa 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Hilal Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (61%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 62% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 38%, shots finished 23-1, expected goals 2.76 to 0.07.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Gharafa?

Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 Al Gharafa in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 62%, draw 20%, Al Gharafa 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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