Shanghai Port 1-1 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 25% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
22%
4.33
X/2
8%
8.54
X/X
9%
5.04
2/1
8%
23.85
2/2
12%
6.3
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shanghai Port EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 27%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-29% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.3 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shanghai Port
1-1
AWAY Gwangju
0.97 xG 1.01
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
235 Passes 438
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Shanghai Port vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Port and Gwangju couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Shanghai Port at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Shanghai Port had 38% of the ball to Gwangju's 62%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.97 to 1.01.

What was the final score of Shanghai Port vs Gwangju?

Shanghai Port 1-1 Gwangju in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shanghai Port vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shanghai Port win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Shanghai Port 50%, draw 24%, Gwangju 27%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shanghai Port) ✗ Over 2.5
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