Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-1 Al Ain — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
49%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.31
6+ Goals
8%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
5.86
1/2
8%
23.4
1/X
4%
14.3
X/1
13%
8.08
X/2
12%
4.39
X/X
12%
5.17
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.51
2/X
9%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
49%
Away Win
50%
-0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ain EU Bookmakers 54%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.01/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/2.38
-14% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -62%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.2 Crosses 17.9
4.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Al Ain
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.66 xG 1.51
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
355 Passes 328
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.11.2023 Al Ain Al Ain 1-3 HT 1-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
19.09.2023 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 0-3 HT 0-2 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
07.04.2015 Al Ain Al Ain 1-1 HT 1-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
18.03.2015 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
1-1
AWAY Al Ain
1.36 xG 2.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
262 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Ain
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pakhtakor Tashkent and Al Ain shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ain at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pakhtakor Tashkent had 44% of the ball to Al Ain's 56%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.36 to 2.46.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Al Ain led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pakhtakor Tashkent and 1.50 for Al Ain.

What was the final score of Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Ain?

Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-1 Al Ain in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Ain?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ain win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Pakhtakor Tashkent 26%, draw 25%, Al Ain 49%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ain) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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