Milan 6-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
25%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.38
Over Pick
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
23%
5.01
2-3
40%
1.97
4-5
23%
2.81
6+
14%
7.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.7
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
24.3
X/1
16%
4.01
X/2
9%
20.1
X/X
9%
8.89
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
10%
15.1
2/X
8%
24.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
52%
Home Win
71%
-18.2pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.0pp
25%
Away Win
12%
+13.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo The Market 15%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.07/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/2.08
+50% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +46%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
428 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.5 Crosses 12.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.57 xG 1.08
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
370 Passes 260
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-3 HT 2-1 Milan Milan İTA
30.12.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
29.01.2023 Milan Milan 2-5 HT 1-3 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
30.08.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
22.05.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-3 HT 0-3 Milan Milan İTA
28.11.2021 Milan Milan 1-3 HT 1-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
6-1
AWAY Sassuolo
1.91 xG 0.17
70% Ball Possession 30%
15 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
649 Passes 242
91% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan swept aside Sassuolo 6-1. Half-time: 4-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Milan had 70% of the ball to Sassuolo's 30%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 1.91 to 0.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Milan and 1.83 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Milan vs Sassuolo?

Milan 6-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Cup on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Milan 52%, draw 23%, Sassuolo 25%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5
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