Sassuolo 3-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
49%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.26
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
13%
8.83
X/2
13%
4.29
X/X
7%
5.48
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.28
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
50%
Away Win
52%
-2.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 56%
-1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -4%
1.03/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.08
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
15.9 Crosses 17.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Milan
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.21 xG 1.28
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
300 Passes 356
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
29.01.2023 Milan Milan 2-5 HT 1-3 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
30.08.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
22.05.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-3 HT 0-3 Milan Milan İTA
28.11.2021 Milan Milan 1-3 HT 1-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
21.04.2021 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
3-3
AWAY Milan
1.19 xG 2.84
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
178 Passes 460
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 44
7 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo and Milan couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Milan at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sassuolo had 32% of the ball to Milan's 68%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 1.19 to 2.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sassuolo and 1.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Milan?

Sassuolo 3-3 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 27%, draw 24%, Milan 50%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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