Udinese 1-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

Udinese
1-1 HT 1-0
Roma
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Udinese vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
45%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.59
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 34% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.92
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
4%
13.5
X/1
14%
6.38
X/2
16%
4.82
X/X
15%
3.81
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.29
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.1pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+5.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.2pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Udinese v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.12/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.08
-6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -6%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
15.2 Crosses 16.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Udinese vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Roma
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.75 xG 1.72
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
343 Passes 432
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Roma Roma 3-1 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
16.04.2023 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
04.09.2022 Udinese Udinese 4-0 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
13.03.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
23.09.2021 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
14.02.2021 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese and Roma shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Udinese and 1.83 for Roma.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Roma?

Udinese 1-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Udinese 30%, draw 26%, Roma 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Roma), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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