Napoli 2-2 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

Napoli
2-2 HT 1-0
Frosinone
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.56
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.64
6+ Goals
15%
6.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.3
X/1
20%
3.68
X/2
8%
16.3
X/X
8%
7.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.3
2/2
8%
11.65
2/X
8%
19.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-13.0pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.0pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napoli v Frosinone — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 16%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.89/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.97
-7% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -27%
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
440 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
21.7 Crosses 11.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Napoli vs Frosinone Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Frosinone
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.30
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
591 Passes 260
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-4 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTK
19.08.2023 Frosinone Frosinone 1-3 HT 1-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
28.04.2019 Frosinone Frosinone 0-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
08.12.2018 Napoli Napoli 4-0 HT 2-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
14.05.2016 Napoli Napoli 4-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
10.01.2016 Frosinone Frosinone 1-5 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA

Napoli 2-2 Frosinone — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-2
AWAY Frosinone
2.21 xG 2.42
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
474 Passes 202
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli and Frosinone couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Napoli at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Napoli had 66% of the ball to Frosinone's 34%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 2.21 to 2.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Frosinone?

Napoli 2-2 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Napoli 56%, draw 23%, Frosinone 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Napoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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