Sturm Graz 1-3 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
12%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 28% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.22
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
15%
4.29
X/2
8%
9.77
X/X
11%
5.07
2/1
10%
24.0
2/2
11%
7.87
2/X
6%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
2.01/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.75
+21% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.9 Crosses 15.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.15 xG 0.78
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
286 Passes 266
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
28 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.12.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
31.08.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2 HT 1-2 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
25.02.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
19.03.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
09.10.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-3
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
0.62 xG 3.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
318 Passes 303
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Swarovski Tirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swarovski Tirol beat Sturm Graz 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 52% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 48%, shots finished 7-23, expected goals 0.62 to 3.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.50 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Swarovski Tirol?

Sturm Graz 1-3 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 53%, draw 24%, Swarovski Tirol 23%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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