Las Palmas 1-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Jan 2024

Las Palmas
1-2 HT 1-0
Barcelona
📅04/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Las Palmas vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.71
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
49%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.64
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
15%
8.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.61
1/2
8%
20.45
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.85
X/1
9%
11.75
X/2
12%
3.79
X/X
11%
6.45
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
29%
1.85
2/X
8%
16.35
Value flag · 1/X at 16.85 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
18%
+5.4pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.7pp
49%
Away Win
61%
-12.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Las Palmas v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 66%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -18%
0.84/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.06
-16% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 503 · 86%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
15.1 Crosses 15.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Las Palmas vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Barcelona
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.21 xG 2.52
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
328 Passes 501
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 38
9 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.03.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
01.10.2017 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
14.05.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-4 HT 0-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
14.01.2017 Barcelona Barcelona 5-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
20.02.2016 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-2 HT 1-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
26.09.2015 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1

Las Palmas 1-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
1-2
AWAY Barcelona
0.67 xG 2.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
318 Passes 409
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 49
10 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona edged past Las Palmas 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Las Palmas had 45% of the ball to Barcelona's 55%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.67 to 2.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Barcelona's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Las Palmas and 2.83 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Barcelona?

Las Palmas 1-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 23%, draw 28%, Barcelona 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ BTTS Yes
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