Osasuna 1-0 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Jan 2024

📅04/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
11%
15.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.22
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
18%
3.88
X/2
9%
9.29
X/X
9%
4.86
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
9%
7.43
2/X
9%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -17%
1.76/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.74
+0% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -26%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
24.9 Crosses 18.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Almeria
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.88 xG 0.81
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
300 Passes 331
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.05.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 3-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
12.09.2022 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
27.01.2021 Almeria Almeria 0-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
26.01.2019 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS2
08.09.2018 Osasuna Osasuna 3-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
10.02.2018 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
1-0
AWAY Almeria
1.27 xG 0.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
418 Passes 376
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna squeezed past Almeria 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Osasuna as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Osasuna had 52% of the ball to Almeria's 48%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.27 to 0.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Osasuna and 0.33 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Almeria?

Osasuna 1-0 Almeria in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 50%, draw 25%, Almeria 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osasuna) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Osasuna)
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