Sevilla 0-2 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Jan 2024

📅04/01/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.95
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 32% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.25
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
10%
5.92
X/2
13%
5.12
X/X
16%
4.15
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.45
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
0.92/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.12
+5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
22.7 Crosses 21.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.94 xG 1.02
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
404 Passes 300
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
08.10.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.05.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
11.12.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
03.05.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 0-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
31.10.2020 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
0-2
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.69 xG 1.35
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
500 Passes 282
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 29
31 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao beat Sevilla 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Athletic Bilbao made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sevilla had 61% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 39%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.69 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sevilla and 0.67 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao?

Sevilla 0-2 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 32%, draw 31%, Athletic Bilbao 37%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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