Ballymena United 1-2 Ards FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Cup, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 28% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
70%
-10.2pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.2pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Ards FC EU Bookmakers 14%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
3.47/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/1.02
+33% / +127% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +150%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
449 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Ards FC
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
05.11.2024 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-0 HT 1-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRLK
14.09.2022 Ards FC Ards FC 2-4 Ballymena United Ballymena United KILK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ballymena United
1-2
AWAY Ards FC
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Ards FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ards FC edged past Ballymena United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ballymena United at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ballymena United had 68% of the ball to Ards FC's 32%, shots finished 13-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ballymena United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ballymena United and 1.00 for Ards FC.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Ards FC?

Ballymena United 1-2 Ards FC in the North Ireland - Cup on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Ards FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ballymena United win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 60%, draw 23%, Ards FC 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Ballymena United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ballymena United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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