Chaves vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Chaves v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Chaves vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Chaves 0-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel shaded a tight game against Chaves 1-0 on their travels.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Penafiel made the difference.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 47% and both teams to score at 51%.
On the day, Chaves had 59% of the ball to Penafiel's 41%, shots finished 15-3, expected goals 2.39 to 1.25 — by the quality of chances, Chaves deserved more.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Penafiel.
Chaves vs Penafiel Result & Final Score
Chaves 0-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Chaves vs Penafiel Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chaves 38%, draw 29%, Penafiel 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chaves), BTTS Yes went the other way.