Gernika 1-0 Basconia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gernika EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Basconia EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.34/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.99
-6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -39%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gernika
1-0
AWAY Basconia
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gernika vs Basconia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika squeezed past Basconia 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gernika as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Gernika had 39% of the ball to Basconia's 61%, shots finished 5-8.

What was the final score of Gernika vs Basconia?

Gernika 1-0 Basconia in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gernika vs Basconia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gernika win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Gernika 48%, draw 27%, Basconia 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gernika), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gernika) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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