UCAM Murcia 1-0 CD Aguilas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.09
Draw
27%
2.83
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.53
No
53%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
44%
+6.3pp
27%
Draw
32%
-5.1pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-6.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
36%
+11.2pp
53%
BTTS No
64%
-11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCAM Murcia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Aguilas EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +15%
1.03/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/0.83
-21% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +47%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
288 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCAM Murcia
0W-2D-2L
AWAY CD Aguilas
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
16.02.2025 CD Aguilas CD Aguilas 2-1 HT 1-0 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia İS4
06.10.2024 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia 1-1 HT 0-0 CD Aguilas CD Aguilas İS4
10.03.2024 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Aguilas CD Aguilas İS4
29.10.2023 CD Aguilas CD Aguilas 1-0 HT 1-0 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCAM Murcia
1-0
AWAY CD Aguilas
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UCAM Murcia vs CD Aguilas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCAM Murcia squeezed past CD Aguilas 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had UCAM Murcia as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, UCAM Murcia had 47% of the ball to CD Aguilas's 53%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, CD Aguilas led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for UCAM Murcia and 1.00 for CD Aguilas.

What was the final score of UCAM Murcia vs CD Aguilas?

UCAM Murcia 1-0 CD Aguilas in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCAM Murcia vs CD Aguilas?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCAM Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split UCAM Murcia 50%, draw 27%, CD Aguilas 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UCAM Murcia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UCAM Murcia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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