Alverca 1-0 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Jan 2026

Alverca
1-0 HT 0-0
Famalicao
📅04/01/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Alverca vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.15
6+ Goals
10%
20.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.71
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
6%
7.27
X/2
14%
4.73
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
2.93
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.5
Value flag · 2/X at 13.5 — our 10% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alverca v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.64/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.02
-1% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
270 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
13.1 Crosses 19.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1

Alverca vs Famalicao Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Famalicao
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.11.2021 Alverca Alverca 1-2 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POK

Alverca 1-0 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
1-0
AWAY Famalicao
2.10 xG 1.10
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
316 Passes 426
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca nicked a narrow win over Famalicao 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Famalicao at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Alverca had 44% of the ball to Famalicao's 56%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 2.10 to 1.10.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Famalicao?

Alverca 1-0 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Alverca 26%, draw 29%, Famalicao 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Famalicao), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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