Rio Ave vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Rio Ave v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals
Rio Ave vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Rio Ave
POR
1-1
HT 0-1
Casa Pia
POR
Rio Ave 3-1 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics
Rio Ave beat Casa Pia 3-1 in the Portugal - Premier League on 4 Jan 2026. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 42% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Rio Ave had 51% of the ball to Casa Pia's 49%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.97 to 1.89.
Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave have the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rio Ave and 1.17 for Casa Pia.
What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?
Rio Ave 3-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 39%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Ave) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.