Rio Ave 3-1 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.75
6+ Goals
8%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.6
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
13%
5.13
X/2
12%
6.1
X/X
15%
3.88
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
13%
4.7
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
+0.1pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.29/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.25
-1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 80%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
16.5 Crosses 17.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 0.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
388 Passes 283
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-1 HT 1-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
12.01.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 1-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POK
02.11.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 2-2 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
11.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
02.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
16.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
3-1
AWAY Casa Pia
2.97 xG 1.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
271 Passes 255
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Rio Ave beat Casa Pia 3-1 in the Portugal - Premier League on 4 Jan 2026. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 42% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rio Ave had 51% of the ball to Casa Pia's 49%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.97 to 1.89.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave have the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rio Ave and 1.17 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?

Rio Ave 3-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 39%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Ave) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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