Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 12 Jan 2025

Casa Pia
1-3 HT 1-2
Rio Ave
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.6
Over 2.5
49%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.57
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
4.71
6+ Goals
11%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
3.71
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
20%
5.12
X/2
12%
5.72
X/X
15%
3.94
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
15%
4.34
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 36%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
2.83/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.89
+92% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Rio Ave
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.73 xG 0.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
302 Passes 371
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 2-2 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
11.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
02.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
16.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
30.10.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.05.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2

Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-3
AWAY Rio Ave
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
FAQ Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Rio Ave beat Casa Pia 3-1 away from home in the Portugal - Cup on 12 Jan 2025. Half-time: 1-2.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Casa Pia had 52% of the ball to Rio Ave's 48%, shots finished 11-6.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave lead the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Casa Pia and 1.00 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?

Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Cup on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 36%, draw 29%, Rio Ave 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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