Gil Vicente 1-0 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 12 Jan 2025

Gil Vicente
1-0 HT 0-0
Moreirense
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Gil Vicente vs Moreirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.52
Over 2.5
57%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
2.03
No
42%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.32
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
5.4
6+ Goals
13%
34.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 5.4 — our 28% vs market 13.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.76
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
11%
5.07
X/2
10%
5.82
X/X
12%
3.59
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.59
2/X
9%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.3pp
28%
Draw
32%
-3.6pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
62%
-19.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
38%
+19.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
45%
+13.3pp
42%
BTTS No
55%
-13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gil Vicente v Moreirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 34%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.07/3.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.90
-20% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -53%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.0 Yellow Cards 4.0

Gil Vicente vs Moreirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Moreirense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
335 Passes 311
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.11.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 3-2 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
20.04.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
11.12.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
08.04.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-2 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
26.11.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 2-2 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
11.04.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-2 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR

Gil Vicente 1-0 Moreirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
1-0
AWAY Moreirense
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente nicked a narrow win over Moreirense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gil Vicente as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 47% of the ball to Moreirense's 53%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.67 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Moreirense?

Gil Vicente 1-0 Moreirense in the Portugal - Cup on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 42%, draw 28%, Moreirense 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gil Vicente) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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