O Elvas 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.78
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
61%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.27
No
50%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
25%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
10%
+9.0pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.6pp
60%
Away Win
71%
-10.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+10.3pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME O Elvas EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 75%
+59% / +59% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
2.15/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.84/0.71
+150% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 448 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards 5.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME O Elvas
2-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH O Elvas vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

O Elvas squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Vitoria Guimaraes at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, O Elvas had 31% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 69%, shots finished 9-17.

What was the final score of O Elvas vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

O Elvas 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Cup on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for O Elvas vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split O Elvas 19%, draw 20%, Vitoria Guimaraes 60%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Over 2.5
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