Rio Ave 2-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 2 Nov 2024

Rio Ave
2-2 HT 2-2
Casa Pia
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.88
No
61%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.47
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.4
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.89
X/2
11%
6.09
X/X
7%
3.94
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
14%
4.63
2/X
10%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-5.0pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.0pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.19/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.24
-13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.2 Crosses 16.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.80 xG 0.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
364 Passes 300
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
02.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
16.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
30.10.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.05.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
19.12.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR2

Rio Ave 2-2 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
2-2
AWAY Casa Pia
0.96 xG 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
298 Passes 339
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave and Casa Pia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

Our pre-match lean was Rio Ave at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rio Ave had 47% of the ball to Casa Pia's 53%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.96 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rio Ave and 0.50 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?

Rio Ave 2-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 45%, draw 24%, Casa Pia 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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