Casa Pia 2-1 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.75
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 31% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.64
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
17%
4.44
X/2
11%
8.03
X/X
16%
4.36
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
9%
6.57
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.00/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.56
-33% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.7 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.70 xG 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
287 Passes 400
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.01.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 1-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POK
02.11.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 2-2 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
11.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
02.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
16.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
30.10.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
2-1
AWAY Rio Ave
1.16 xG 2.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
322 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Casa Pia edged past Rio Ave 2-1 in the Portugal - Premier League on 29 Mar 2025. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 42% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Casa Pia had 50% of the ball to Rio Ave's 50%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.16 to 2.27.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave lead the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Casa Pia and 1.33 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?

Casa Pia 2-1 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 43%, draw 29%, Rio Ave 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
29 Mar 2025
21:00 Estrela vs Sporting CP Analysis →
23:30 Sporting Braga vs Arouca Analysis →