Sporting Braga 2-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
13%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.2
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
23%
4.18
X/2
14%
9.9
X/X
8%
4.99
2/1
7%
24.65
2/2
7%
8.19
2/X
8%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -4%
1.98/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.30
+27% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.8 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Arouca
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.66 xG 1.31
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
383 Passes 334
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2024 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
06.04.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-3 HT 0-2 Arouca Arouca POR
12.11.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
19.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
28.08.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-6 HT 0-4 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
12.07.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-1
AWAY Arouca
0.69 xG 0.63
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
384 Passes 314
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Arouca 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 55% of the ball to Arouca's 45%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.69 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Arouca?

Sporting Braga 2-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 49%, draw 24%, Arouca 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5
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