Sporting Braga vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sporting Braga v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Sporting Braga vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Sporting Braga
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Arouca
POR
0-6
HT 0-4
Sporting Braga
POR
3-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
HAZ
Sporting Braga 2-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Sporting Braga edged past Arouca 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Sporting Braga had 55% of the ball to Arouca's 45%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.69 to 0.63.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Arouca?
Sporting Braga 2-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 49%, draw 24%, Arouca 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.