Sporting Braga 0-3 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

Sporting Braga
0-3 HT 0-2
Arouca
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Sporting Braga vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.64
2-3 Goals
43%
2.02
4-5 Goals
24%
2.63
6+ Goals
12%
6.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.72
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.05
X/1
17%
3.85
X/2
8%
13.7
X/X
8%
7.31
2/1
9%
19.7
2/2
9%
9.48
2/X
7%
17.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-11.1pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Braga v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +16%
2.09/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.40
-5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +77%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
24.8 Crosses 14.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sporting Braga vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Arouca
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.87 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
421 Passes 311
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
19.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
28.08.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-6 HT 0-4 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
12.07.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca HAZ
08.05.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
30.12.2021 Arouca Arouca 0-6 HT 0-3 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR

Sporting Braga 0-3 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
0-3
AWAY Arouca
1.23 xG 1.94
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 9
373 Passes 250
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca swept aside Sporting Braga 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 57% of the ball to Arouca's 43%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.23 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.33 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Arouca?

Sporting Braga 0-3 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 53%, draw 21%, Arouca 26%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting Braga), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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