Famalicao 3-2 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.43
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
7%
8.47
X/X
11%
4.64
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
13%
6.57
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.35/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.16
-9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
21.6 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Vizela
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.13 xG 1.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
319 Passes 343
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Vizela Vizela 0-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
13.05.2023 Vizela Vizela 0-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
07.01.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 2-1 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POR
18.03.2022 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
31.10.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
3-2
AWAY Vizela
1.28 xG 1.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
297 Passes 348
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao edged past Vizela 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Famalicao had 47% of the ball to Vizela's 53%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.28 to 1.83 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vizela.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Famalicao had the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Famalicao and 0.60 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Vizela?

Famalicao 3-2 Vizela in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 47%, draw 27%, Vizela 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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