Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
12%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.82
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
9%
4.75
X/2
13%
7.01
X/X
15%
4.9
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
9%
4.87
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 32%
+17% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.64/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.83
+72% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -41%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 81%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.7 Crosses 16.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Benfica
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.50 xG 1.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
375 Passes 362
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK
29.02.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POK
12.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.05.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-2 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
15.01.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.04.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
2-1
AWAY Benfica
0.96 xG 1.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 13
332 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP squeezed past Benfica 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sporting CP had 50% of the ball to Benfica's 50%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.96 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting CP and 1.83 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 47%, draw 26%, Benfica 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ BTTS Yes
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