Estrela 0-3 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.18
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.37
6+ Goals
8%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
15.75
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
6%
24.2
X/1
7%
16.95
X/2
18%
3.68
X/X
12%
6.36
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
32%
1.62
2/X
8%
20.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
11%
+7.6pp
26%
Draw
19%
+6.9pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-14.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 75%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.06/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/0.69
+47% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -4%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
232 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 81%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
13.6 Crosses 21.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
1.59 xG 2.61
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
251 Passes 486
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 38
8 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.11.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-1 HT 3-1 Estrela Estrela POR
29.03.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-2 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-2 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-3
AWAY Sporting CP
0.35 xG 2.26
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
182 Passes 412
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
6 Box Touches 32
9 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Estrela 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Estrela had 34% of the ball to Sporting CP's 66%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.35 to 2.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Estrela and 3.33 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?

Estrela 0-3 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Estrela 18%, draw 26%, Sporting CP 56%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
29 Mar 2025
18:30 Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Analysis →
23:30 Sporting Braga vs Arouca Analysis →