Arouca 1-2 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.87
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
1.95
Over 2.5
60%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.75
No
41%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.34
6+ Goals
15%
12.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 25% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
6.8
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
11%
9.0
X/2
14%
4.12
X/X
12%
5.07
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.28
2/X
9%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
22%
+2.1pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-6.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
48%
-7.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
52%
+7.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.5pp
41%
BTTS No
47%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 57%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
0.83/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.16
-45% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 84%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
12.2 Crosses 19.3
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.18 xG 1.45
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
297 Passes 435
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-3 HT 0-2 Arouca Arouca POR
12.11.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
19.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
28.08.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-6 HT 0-4 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
12.07.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca HAZ
08.05.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-2
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.56 xG 1.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
427 Passes 262
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 25
31 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Arouca 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Arouca had 60% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 40%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.56 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arouca and 2.17 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Sporting Braga?

Arouca 1-2 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Arouca 24%, draw 29%, Sporting Braga 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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