Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
32%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.59
Over 2.5
47%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
4.93
6+ Goals
10%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.43
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
11%
15.3
X/1
18%
3.86
X/2
11%
8.88
X/X
8%
3.97
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
12%
7.78
2/X
7%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-8.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+11.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.6pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -10%
1.53/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.43
+0% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
22.3 Crosses 15.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Moreirense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.05 xG 0.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
298 Passes 322
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
05.11.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.11.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 3-2 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
06.11.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
30.04.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-0
AWAY Moreirense
0.44 xG 0.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
356 Passes 308
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Moreirense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 53% of the ball to Moreirense's 47%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.44 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.83 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 43%, draw 25%, Moreirense 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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