AVS 2-3 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

AVS
2-3 HT 2-2
Famalicao
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

AVS vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
45%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.09
No
66%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.57
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.22 — our 42% vs market 38.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.11
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
10%
6.17
X/2
18%
4.62
X/X
15%
3.54
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
23%
3.4
2/X
4%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.9pp
46%
Away Win
39%
+6.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.6pp
34%
BTTS Yes
44%
-9.4pp
66%
BTTS No
56%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AVS v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 43%
+50% / +50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.18/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.31
+29% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
273 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 83%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
12.7 Crosses 16.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1

AVS 2-3 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
2-3
AWAY Famalicao
1.88 xG 2.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 0
293 Passes 362
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AVS vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao nicked a narrow win over AVS 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 46% of the ball to Famalicao's 54%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.88 to 2.17.

What was the final score of AVS vs Famalicao?

AVS 2-3 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split AVS 27%, draw 28%, Famalicao 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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