Porto 4-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.16
Draw
16%
6.26
Away
14%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.61
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.27
No
51%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.82
2-3 Goals
40%
2.04
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
13%
5.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
24%
3.37
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
5%
11.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
5%
29.5
2/X
6%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
82%
-11.9pp
16%
Draw
13%
+3.4pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+8.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.6pp
51%
BTTS No
60%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 8%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
2.50/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/2.63
-4% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
470 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 72%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.7 Crosses 13.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Estoril
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.98 xG 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
459 Passes 184
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
41 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
30.03.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
09.01.2024 Estoril Estoril 0-4 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POK
06.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 3-1 HT 1-1 Porto Porto PORLC
03.11.2023 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
10.03.2023 Porto Porto 3-2 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
17.09.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-1 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
4-0
AWAY Estoril
3.16 xG 0.98
69% Ball Possession 31%
16 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
634 Passes 259
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto cruised past Estoril 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Porto had 69% of the ball to Estoril's 31%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 3.16 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto and 1.33 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Porto vs Estoril?

Porto 4-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Porto 70%, draw 16%, Estoril 14%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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