Estoril vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estoril v Porto — Team-Based Signals
Estoril vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-1
Porto
PORLC
0-1
HT 0-0
Estoril
POR
3-2
HT 2-1
Estoril
POR
1-1
HT 1-0
Porto
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Estoril
POR
Estoril 1-0 Porto — Actual Match Statistics
Estoril squeezed past Porto 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Porto at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Estoril had 26% of the ball to Porto's 74%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 1.18 to 1.18.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Estoril and 1.83 for Porto.
What was the final score of Estoril vs Porto?
Estoril 1-0 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estoril vs Porto?
Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Estoril 23%, draw 21%, Porto 56%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 went the other way.