Arouca vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Farense — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Arouca
POR
1-3
HT 1-1
Arouca
POK
Arouca 2-1 Farense — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca nicked a narrow win over Farense 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Arouca had 64% of the ball to Farense's 36%, shots finished 28-13, expected goals 1.49 to 2.02 — the balance of chances actually favoured Farense.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arouca and 1.50 for Farense.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Farense?
Arouca 2-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Farense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Arouca 48%, draw 25%, Farense 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.