Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.57
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
20%
4.1
X/2
8%
7.59
X/X
18%
4.12
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
6.31
2/X
5%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.65/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.27
-1% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
22.7 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Moreirense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
339 Passes 303
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.11.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 3-2 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
06.11.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
30.04.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
09.01.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 2-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-0
AWAY Moreirense
0.73 xG 0.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
240 Passes 419
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes edged past Moreirense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 41% of the ball to Moreirense's 59%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.73 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 43%, draw 29%, Moreirense 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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