Saguntino 1-0 Lleida Esportiu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
35%
2.88
Away
31%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.0pp
35%
Draw
31%
+4.0pp
31%
Away Win
39%
-8.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.3pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saguntino EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Lleida Esportiu EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -22%
1.28/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.09
+24% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saguntino
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lleida Esportiu
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu 1-0 HT 0-0 Saguntino Saguntino İS4
12.03.2023 Saguntino Saguntino 4-0 HT 1-0 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İS4
23.10.2022 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu 1-1 HT 1-0 Saguntino Saguntino İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saguntino
1-0
AWAY Lleida Esportiu
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Saguntino vs Lleida Esportiu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saguntino edged past Lleida Esportiu 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 35% / 31%) promised a tight game; Saguntino found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Saguntino had 35% of the ball to Lleida Esportiu's 65%, shots finished 8-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Saguntino and 0.67 for Lleida Esportiu.

What was the final score of Saguntino vs Lleida Esportiu?

Saguntino 1-0 Lleida Esportiu in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saguntino vs Lleida Esportiu?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Saguntino 34%, draw 35%, Lleida Esportiu 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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